Too important vs too dependent: linkage and leverage effects on Russian regime policy in Western Eurasia

This article proposes a “linkage-leverage nexus” theory to explain variation in great-power support for autocracies. It posits that a target’s international ties (to the great power and rivals) and the great power’s leverage jointly determine whether to intervene. Significant “two-sided linkage” (ties to both the great power and rivals) makes a target “too important” to lose, prompting active intervention to prevent realignment. Conversely, if a state is overwhelmingly reliant on the great power (“extreme leverage”), it becomes “too dependent” to potentially be lost, making intervention unnecessary as alignment is already secured. Russia’s contrasting policies illustrate this: Belarus, with “two-sided linkage” (to Russia and the West), was “too important,” receiving active support in its 2020 crisis. Armenia, “too dependent” due to overreliance on Russia, saw a passive response during its 2018 regime change. This nexus provides a framework for analysing autocracy support, great-power competition, and external influences on domestic politics.