From Nuclear Proliferation to Hybridity: The Evolution of Russian Understandings of Strategic Deterrence

Using Russian military documents from the 1950s to present, this study tracks deterrence evolution through seven periods, from nuclear proliferation to hybrid strategic deterrence. Through qualitative analysis of military doctrines and publications including Military Thought and Independent Military Review, the research examines how Russian military thinking articulated deterrence concepts, diverged from Western counterparts, and conceptualized effectiveness within Russia’s strategic-cultural framework.The analysis reveals Russia’s persistent attachment to nuclear status compensating for conventional weaknesses, while evolving toward comprehensive approaches integrating nuclear, conventional, and informational capabilities. Russian documents portray US nuclear reductions as encouraging aggression and view American missile defense as offensive encirclement, creating significant misperception risks. The findings emphasize nuclear weapons’ continued centrality despite recognized limitations, highlighting the imperative for Western policymakers to understand that deterrence conceptualization varies across strategic communities based on cultural context.