More than diversion: Economic turmoil, foreign-policy assertiveness, and China’s balance of risk

Popular narratives suggest that Chinese leadership will resort to foreign policy adventures during economic turmoil to secure domestic political gains. This article critically examines the theoretical discussions and China’s strategic behaviors, particularly in territorial disputes, and suggests otherwise. While authoritarian regimes are frequently portrayed as prone to risk-taking and militarized conflict, Chinese leadership has demonstrated a more calculated and cautious posture. Beijing externalizes domestic political pressures through assertive rhetoric and measured foreign policy actions, while also internalizing the risks of external pressure by tempering its diplomatic stance—often at the expense of certain nationalistic support—particularly when heightened diplomatic assertiveness risks undermining broader economic development. These dual-track responses aim to keep regime risks within manageable bounds. A systematic review of China’s behavior reveals a consistent pattern of strategic risk-balancing.