Russian roulette revisited: Does a limited nuclear strike constitute a winning strategy?
Abstract
Russia has threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons repeatedly in its war on Ukraine to intimidate and break the cohesion of NATO. Does such a strike potentially constitute a winning strategy? This article addresses this question via four waves of vignette-based survey experiments, two prior and two post Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in Germany and the United States, two critical NATO members with diverse cultural sensibilities. Contrary to our expectation, we find that public attitudes in both countries are remarkably similar and favor in the case of a Russian tactical nuclear strike not a conciliatory but a retaliatory NATO response. Moreover, public attitudes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have grown even more hawkish.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Nuclear Issues and Defense
European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Contemporary Security Policy
- Volume
- 47
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 655–679
- Publication date
- 12 February 2026
- Language
- EN