The myth of catch-up development: trends in core–periphery inequality from 1960 to 2023

The conventional narrative in international development holds that poorer countries are “catching up” with richer countries through the process of capitalist growth. This paper assesses this claim using data on inequality in GDP per capita for 1960-2023, processed using three different methods for currency comparison. We find that convergence narratives are not supported by empirical evidence. In fact, the opposite is occurring: the absolute income gap between the core (‘advanced economies’) and the periphery (‘emerging and developing economies’) has increased since 1960, by 170–270% depending on the currency concept. The core has captured 4–10x more income than the periphery over this period. Even in relative terms, convergence is not occurring; for most regions and most countries in the periphery their relative position vis-à-vis the core has deteriorated. Core–periphery inequality worsened particularly during the period of market liberalisation in the 1980s and 1990s. China is the only peripheral region that has meaningfully improved its relative position, but its income remains just 22–38% of the core level. While some peripheral countries have been integrated into the core for geopolitical reasons, an increasing majority of the world population is peripheralised. These results support the insights of world-systems analysts who argue that convergence is unlikely to occur within the existing structure of the capitalist world economy. Real development in the South will require strategies of industrial policy and planning to increase economic sovereignty, develop South-South trade, and delink from the imperial core.