From legislator to leader: the conditional effect of legislative effectiveness on joining party leadership

What role might legislative effectiveness play in congressional leadership contests? Prior studies have found policy similarities can matter in individual contests, but this has yet to be analysed in a comprehensive manner in contemporary contests. Using Bayesian logistic regression, leadership contests from the 107th through 116th Congress are analysed. The results uncover important partisan and institutional differences: legislative effectiveness had a negative effect among Republicans on joining leadership but a positive effect for Democrats when they were in the majority. These findings have implications for our understanding of contemporary leadership challenges both within and across parties.