The 2024 European Parliament elections in Greece: blues of an incipient predominant-party system?

The 2024 European Parliament elections in Greece tested both New Democracy’s (ND) trajectory towards predominant party status and the second-order election (SOE) model’s relevance. Drawing on aggregate results and survey data, this article examines the election’s macro-patterns and micro-foundations. The election aligned with SOE expectations – low turnout, underperformance by major parties, and gains for smaller and radical parties – yet diverged from the model’s honeymoon effect, which predicts modest governing party losses early in the electoral cycle. Despite its 2023 legislative victory, ND suffered unprecedented setbacks. Our findings suggest these losses reflected retrospective economic and political evaluations rather than durable partisan realignment, indicating that ND’s support may recover in future first-order contests, though space for emerging challengers remains.