Normalized but politically contingent: The paradox of Islamist moderation after the Arab Spring

The paper examines how public trust in Islamist parties has evolved since the Arab Spring in the Middle East and North Africa, focusing on perceptions of their institutional behavior and the extent to which they are seen as moderated actors. To demonstrate this, the analysis draws on Arab Barometer survey data and the results of the 2024 parliamentary elections in Jordan, arguing that political interest is the strongest predictor of trust in Islamist actors. In many respects, citizens do not evaluate Islamist parties on the basis of religious conviction or ideological orientation, but rather on their institutional behavior, mobilization capacity, and performance within highly controlled political environments. In settings where electoral competition is tightly restricted, such as Jordan, citizens may express support for Islamist parties not because they have undergone ideological transformation, but because they represent the most viable organizational alternative within an otherwise narrow political landscape. By emphasizing the conditional and strategic nature of public support, this study contributes to research on party politics and Islamist movements by showing that trust in Islamist parties increasingly reflects pragmatic evaluations shaped by structural constraints rather than deep ideological attachments.