Neotectonics and earthquake preparedness in Türkiye: embedding geological foresight in urban planning

Türkiye lies at the intersection of several of the world’s most active fault systems, making large earthquakes an inevitable feature of its future. Over many decades, scientists have developed a strong understanding of the country’s neotectonic setting, identifying active faults, seismic gaps, and recurrence intervals. However, this knowledge has not always been fully reflected in the way urban planning and preparedness strategies are designed. This paper suggests that resilience can be strengthened by placing neotectonic science at the centre of preparedness strategies. We propose a three-part framework of geological foresight; spatial foresight, which highlights where risk is concentrated by aligning active fault traces, soil conditions, and liquefaction zones with patterns of urban growth; temporal foresight, which draws on recurrence intervals and seismic gap analysis to help prioritise preparedness; and systemic foresight, which considers the potential for cascading ruptures across multiple faults, as observed in the 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Turkey-Syria) earthquakes. This three-pronged framework is positioned as the paper’s central and most original contribution. Rather than broad governance debates, our focus remains on how fault dynamics, seismic gaps, and microzonation directly inform settlement planning and preparedness. Integrating these dimensions of foresight into planning and policy can help transform scientific knowledge into practical measures that reduce risk and strengthen resilience.