Assessment of vulnerability to disruptions to the supply of semiconductors

Abstract While semiconductor supply chain vulnerabilities draw significant attention, the consequences of losing access to specific semiconductor devices remain poorly understood. We combine structured interviews with 21 semiconductor experts across six sectors with component origin analysis of an FPV drone and smartphone to assess for which devices and process nodes loss of access would be most catastrophic. Experts indicated that existing infrastructure—grid, data centers, defense, transportation—would maintain operations for years due to semiconductor durability and stockpiling. Instead, the primary impact would be the inability to produce new products and expand infrastructure. All expert-proposed substitution strategies required 18-36 months to execute, suggesting that reducing these constraints may be important to improve crisis response and longer-term resilience. These findings suggest industry and policymakers should evaluate the costs and benefits of strategies to accelerate substitution, such as design precertification, component standardization, or modular architectures.