Tour operators and climate change: net-zero goals and carbon risks

Tour operators strongly influence both destination and transport choices and therefore play a pivotal role in determining tourism-related emissions, which largely depend on travel distance and the emission intensity of the chosen transport mode. Drawing on a sample of ten small and medium-sized tour operators in Germany, this study examines the relationship between emissions and profitability. Carbon intensities (CO₂ emissions per euro of profit) are calculated for air transport and pre-tax profits for all trips offered (n = 2,301) and analysed. The results reveal substantial variation in carbon intensities – up to a tenfold difference between individual destinations and a fivefold difference between operators. The paper further evaluates the carbon risks arising from carbon trading and low-carbon fuel quotas within the EU, finding that most trips are unlikely to remain profitable beyond the mid-2030s, with projected losses – not considering demand responses – ranging from 10% to 403% of current profitability. The analysis underscores the importance for tour operators of assessing carbon intensities and phasing out packages that contribute disproportionately to emissions or exhibit unfavourable carbon efficiency. Recommendations are made for restructuring destination portfolios to enhance profitability and strengthen business model resilience to carbon-related shocks.