Forever temporary? Migration patterns of posted workers and their implications for free movement

Posting has become the most important channel of temporary intra-European labour mobility by far. This raises a fundamental question: do posted workers eventually transition into settled migrant workers? This paper uses comprehensive administrative data for Belgium, one of the most important receiving countries for posted workers in both relative and absolute terms. We examine posting trajectories in terms of their duration and frequency and assess whether, and under which conditions, posted workers seek more permanent settlement. We find that while a substantial numbers of posted workers reside in the destination country for extended periods of time, transitions from posting to settlement migration are in fact exceptional. Such transitions are more likely among workers with repeated and prolonged posting trajectories, particularly those with multiple postings, long cumulative durations, and fragmented careers across several employers. The main conclusion is that posting is a form of mobility that remains quite distinct from traditional labour migration. The situation of posted workers can be characterised as one of lasting temporariness.