Analysis of income convergence in Russian regions based on Markov chains

The study analyzes the long-term mobility of per capita incomes in 79 Russian regions using the Markov chain methodology for the period 2002–2023. Based on data it is revealed that the process of convergence of regional incomes is proceeding much more slowly than classical models of economic growth suggest. The analysis of transition probability matrices shows limited mobility between decile income categories, especially in the long term. Rich regions demonstrate low mobility and a stable position in the upper income categories, while less developed areas remain trapped in relative poverty. The results confirm the hypothesis of the existence of regional inequalities that reproduce themselves through the mechanisms of low mobility and structural economic differences. The study points to the need for targeted regional policies to reduce inequality and stimulate economic development in peripheral regions.