Not your typical populists: the influence of populist policies on economic convergence in Central and Eastern Europe

The paper examines the impact of populist policies on the convergence of Central and Eastern European populist (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) and non-populist countries (CEEC) (Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania) towards the old EU member states (EU14 + 1). The main hypotheses tested are that populist CEECs converge at a lower absolute rate, compared to non-populist ones, and that populist countries exhibit higher conditional convergence rates during periods of economic instability, while non-populist policies are more effective in stable periods. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) semilog regression, the relationship between the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rate and selected macroeconomic variables is econometrically tested for the period 2004–2022. The results show that populist CEECs experience slower absolute convergence, but faster conditional convergence, indicating structural differences. While both groups benefited from economic openness and FDI, the deterioration of institutional quality under populist governments hampered long-term convergence.