How just are transition plans? An analysis of the energy transition and investment plans of Ghana and Kenya

The importance of just transition has moved to the forefront of discussions around the adoption and implementation of decarbonization policies and plans. However, there is paucity of research examining how countries integrate justice perspectives into their transition plans. This paper aims to bridge this gap by analysing the extent to which the Energy Transition and Investment Plans (ETIPs) of Ghana and Kenya incorporate the concept of just transitions, focusing on the dimensions of distributional, recognition, procedural, and restorative justice. The development of well-crafted plans is essential in guiding the transition to a post-carbon society, and the planning stage is widely acknowledged as one of the most crucial steps in demonstrating a country's commitment to incorporating just transition principles. Analysis of the ETIPs reveal that while elements of distributional and procedural justice are addressed in the plans, the approach is largely reductionist. Moreover, there is limited evidence of recognition and restorative justice in either ETIP. The plans also overlook the importance of political economy dynamics, which are significant in the just transition agenda. The paper also deploys the implementation of wind turbine farm and solar PV farm projects in Kenya and Ghana respectively to highlight injustices that may characterize climate compatible initiatives, emphasizing the need to take justice more seriously in the energy transition agenda. The analysis reveals that to ensure a just transition, it is necessary to think and work politically–understanding the contextual drivers and barriers to change–when approaching the planning, adoption, and implementation of climate-compatible initiatives. The paper concludes by providing valuable entry points for future studies, which can enhance our understanding of improving just transition notions in climate-friendly policies, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa.