Multi-modeling carbon sequestration and suitable habitats: a spatio-temporal study in northern Pakistan using InVEST and Maxent

In the current Anthropocene era, the unprecedented pressure on Earth's remaining habitats from human activities poses a major risk to long-term sustainability. This study used MaxEnt and InVEST models to evaluate habitat suitability and carbon sequestration potential in the Malakand division of northern Pakistan. The MaxEnt model was employed to identify the key bioclimatic variables influencing species distribution, analyzing 19 environmental factors, while the InVEST model assessed carbon storage across various land cover types over a span of 2 decades (2003, 2013, and 2023). Results revealed a marked decline in both habitat suitability and carbon sequestration, primarily attributed to deforestation, land-use changes, and other anthropogenic pressures. Results indicated approximately 24,169 km2 of the study area was unsuitable for species habitation, whereas only 3,500 km2 was identified as suitable. A similar decline in carbon sequestration was observed, particularly in the southern and central regions, highlighting an urgent need for improved land management practices. The integrated methodology findings revealed a strong spatial, association between habitat suitability and carbon storage, quantified by calculating a pixel wise Pearson correlation between the continuous MaxEnt suitability and the InVEST carbon storage for each period (2003–2023). This correlation underscores the critical role of biodiversity conservation in mitigating climate change.