The politics of fiscal constraints: stakeholder influence in the budget process

This article examines the politics of adopting fiscal rules in Brazil by comparing three reform attempts (2005, early 2016, late 2016). Using interviews, official documents, media reports, and macroeconomic data, it demonstrates how key stakeholders—guardians, spenders, priority setters, watchdogs, and legitimators—shaped the outcomes of the reforms. The roles of stakeholders proved to be dynamic: priority setters sometimes became guardians, legislators shifted between resistance and support, and watchdogs evolved into legitimacy brokers. These changes help explain why reforms failed under Lula and Dilma but succeeded under Temer. Fiscal rules are adopted when political and economic incentives align across stakeholder roles, allowing for credible coalition-building.