Ethiopia’s reform efforts, backsliding, and war under Abiy Ahmed’s era: is there a democratic path to sustain the transition?

Ethiopia’s political transition under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (2018–present) represents a critical juncture, marked by bold reforms – liberalizing politics, ending the Eritrea conflict, and shifting from ethno-nationalism and state-led development to pan-nationalism and capitalism. Yet, rising ethnic violence and polarization threaten its stability. While Ethiopia’s transformation holds regional significance, few studies systematically analyze its reform-stability nexus. This research fills that gap through qualitative analysis of secondary data (academic works, reports, media) and comparative insights from South Africa and Kenya. Findings reveal that sustainable democratization hinges on constitutional reform, inclusive governance, and institutional resilience. The study underscores the imperative of leadership commitment, genuine reconciliation, and national cohesion to avert state fragility. Without these, Ethiopia risks cyclical instability despite its reform ambitions.