India rising? Private capital in the infrastructure-geoeconomics nexus in South Asia

The Narendra Modi government has increasingly privileged private capital in Indian development financing (DF) in South Asia while supporting regional investments by regime-aligned conglomerates such as the Adani Group (AG). What factors shape India’s emerging policy approach to the infrastructure-geoeconomics nexus (IGN)? The existing literature struggles to account for the government’s continued support for private capital in ways that undermine broader statecraft efforts. This article argues that contemporary Indian economic statecraft is decisively shaped by state transformation processes since the mid-1970s, which have reoriented the state toward supporting private capital accumulation. Drawing on new interview data, the article demonstrates that the intensified privileging of private capital in DF and the systematic support for the AG reflect broader evolving political economy dynamics in India. However, the close Modi-AG link also undermines India’s strategic agenda, indicating that domestic political economy dynamics decisively inform the shape and limits of Indian IGN policies.