Confronting the shield: the rise of massed precision and the U.S.–China offense-defence balance in the air domain

This article applies the offense-defence balance (ODB) framework to evaluate the effectiveness of U.S. suppression and destruction of enemy air defences (SEAD/DEAD) in East Asia against Chinese integrated air defence systems. Specifically, it compares two force composition options: (1) stealth aircraft supported by cruise and hypersonic missiles; and (2) stealth aircraft augmented by collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) alongside the same missile suite. Drawing on recent debates over China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy, the article examines the penetrative potential of U.S. airpower in contested airspace and assesses how the integration of CCA – a new generation of AI-enabled, semi-autonomous platforms – may reshape the cost-exchange ratio in favour of the offense. The findings suggest that CCA-enhanced operations offer a more cost-effective solution, enabling saturation attacks that overwhelm Chinese air defences while facilitating high-precision strikes on mobile and static targets by sharing real-time target data with stealth aircraft.