China’s pursuit of double carbon target: challenges and pathways for a green transition

Facing challenges in meeting its 2030 carbon peak goal, China’s multifaceted dilemmas and hopes are revealed through data envelopment analysis (DEA), and panel data analysis, etc. Results show a positive correlation between CO2 emissions/electricity consumption and GDP. Electricity surges boost GDP but complicate carbon control. Pursuing GDP Granger-causes emissions growth, yet de-carbonization is feasible. Expanding green power in (semi-)deserts can maintain minimum economic growth while enhancing environmental payment capacity, offering a ‘win-win’ solution. Empirical findings support the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, with proposed measures aiding its formation. Reforms may help foster a ‘virtuous cycle’ model between economic growth and emissions reduction.