Money, gender, and political alignment: determinants of mayoral re-election in post-transition Poland

This study examines factors influencing the re-election of Polish local government executives from 2006 to 2018. We analyse financial conditions, socio-economic indicators, and political affiliations across four election cycles using logistic regression with Bayesian Model Averaging. Our findings reveal that financial management factors – budget liquidity, capital expenditure, and debt levels – significantly increase re-election likelihood. Female incumbents face lower chances, highlighting persistent gender disparities in post-transition European politics. Political alignment exhibits a dual effect: affiliation with regionally dominant parties increases electoral success, while alignment with national governing parties diminishes prospects, demonstrating the complex multi-level governance dynamics in European electoral politics. These findings contribute to understanding democratic consolidation in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly how economic governance and gender politics shape local democratic processes in newer EU member states.