From norms to security in Lithuania’s Belarus policy after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine

Russia’s 2022 fullscale invasion of Ukraine reordered Lithuania’s Belarus policy. Using an ends – means – justifications (E – M – J) coding scheme, we analyse Lithuanian government reports, Seimas acts, and authoritative executive statements (1991–2024), and benchmark them against the nearestintime EU baseline by issuearea. We trace a post2022 shift to securityfirst ends, a resequencing of instruments toward coercive/regulatory means (border/visa tightening, checkpoint reductions, transit restrictions), and necessitybased public justifications, while a narrower liberal layer persists via funding to civil society and humanitarian carveouts. In EU comparison, Lithuania aligns on sanctions and support-to-society tools but selectively accelerates on border and mobility instruments – behaviour consistent with a frontline small state embedded in a multilevel order. We interpret this as a layered securitisation: ends reprioritised, means resequenced, justifications reframed rather than replaced. Figure 1 summarises the qualitative trajectories across phases. Tables 1–3 report coding and national – EU alignment.