Predicting four delinquent behaviors with specific and nonspecific certainty and severity measures: testing for a certainty-severity and specific-nonspecific divide

In an effort to understand the criminal decision-making process, data from a study where specific forms of certainty, severity, and delinquency were assessed in a group of 1478 middle adolescents (707 males, 771 females) were correlated with delinquency one year later. The four delinquent behaviors examined in this study were shoplifting, property damage, underage drinking, and marijuana use, all assessed as counts (i.e. number of times engaged in the behavior over the past year). The results of several negative binomial regression analyses revealed that certainty was significantly more effective than severity and specificity was significantly more effective than non-specificity in predicting future delinquent behavior in about half the models. In addition to certainty being more important than severity for deterrence, specificity – whereby certainty matches the behavior (e.g. certainty of punishment for property damage predicting future property damage) – may help foster the certainty-behavior relationship with specific offenses (i.e. property damage, marijuana).