A battlefield without gunpowder: a typological analysis of the PLA’s cognitive warfare against Taiwan through military exercises

Between 2022 and 2024, China targeted Taiwan with four large-scale military exercises, integrating military deterrence with cognitive warfare. This study examines China’s strategic adjustments by categorizing operational targets along “General public/Political elites” and “Anti-Independence/Pro-Reunification” (反獨/促統, fan du/Cu tong) dimensions. Using textual coding and data-driven analysis, information is classified into “Deterrence,” “Punishment,” “Mobilization,” and “Appeasement.” Findings indicate strategic shifts aligned with the political landscape. During Tsai Ing-wen’s administration, cognitive warfare prioritized deterrence to weaken Taiwan-U.S. relations. Conversely, after Lai Ching-te took office, the strategy shifted inward, focusing on mobilization and appeasement to induce cognitive biases and deepen socio-political divisions.