Provincial flood risk in Türkiye: hazard–exposure–vulnerability patterns and planning pathways

Flooding is one of the most frequent and damaging consequences of hydrometeorological hazards in Türkiye, where growing urbanization, climatic variability, and socio-economic disparities exacerbate risk conditions. This study develops a province-level flood risk assessment across 81 provinces by integrating hazard (H), exposure (E), and vulnerability (V) indicators into a composite spatial index. The findings reveal that while some provinces face high hazard intensity, others are marked by dense exposure or structural vulnerability. Notably, over 855,000 people and critical infrastructure – including one airport, 11 power plants, and 273 hospitals – are located in flood-prone areas, many of which are classified as high or very high flood-risk zones. The analysis tailors province-scale policy by offering region-specific spatial planning strategies aimed at reducing flood risks and enhancing resilience, providing a scalable framework for integrating flood risk into planning processes. The implications cover hazard mitigation (e.g., ‘space for water’; coordinated runoff management; long-term emissions mitigation), exposure reduction (siting controls; flood-adaptive land-use transitions and strategic relocation), and vulnerability reduction (integrating technological, nature-based, and social measures), thereby mainstreaming flood risk in spatial governance and advancing risk-informed spatial planning.