Predictive factors for giftedness among Syrian refugee students: A focus on academic achievement, gender, and school context

This study investigated predictors of gifted identification among Syrian refugee students in Jordan, focusing on academic achievement, gender, and school context. A dataset comprising 13,598 students assessed using the Arabic version of the HOPE Teacher Rating Scale was analyzed. Logistic regression and random forest analyses examined the influence of GPA, gender, school stage (elementary, middle, secondary), and school location (in-camp and out-of-camp) on identification patterns. GPA emerged as a strong predictor, with higher GPA substantially increasing the likelihood of gifted identification. School location demonstrated a modest effect, as students in camp settings were less likely to be identified, reflecting structural inequities in educational provision. Middle school students were less likely to be identified compared to secondary students, while gender differences were not significant. Predictive modeling results should be interpreted with caution, as gifted identification was derived directly from the HOPE total score; models incorporating HOPE items closely mirrored the HOPE-based classification, whereas models using only demographic variables had limited discriminatory power. These findings underscore the importance of culturally validated, behaviorally anchored teacher rating tools in promoting equitable gifted identification in refugee education contexts and highlight the need for policies that reduce reliance on academic metrics alone.