Rebalancing prevention and protection services: a policy shock analysis of Finland’s child welfare reform

This study evaluates Finland’s 2015 child welfare reform, which shifted family work from child protection to general social services to enhance early support and reduce corrective interventions. Using municipality‑level panel data from 2010–2022 and fixed‑effects models, we examined changes in child protection plans and removals and how these varied by municipal tax revenue. The reform reduced protection plans, especially in higher‑revenue municipalities, but removals increased, particularly in affluent areas. Mediation analysis showed that although declining plans would have reduced removals, this effect was outweighed by a stronger direct increase in removals following the reform.