Modeling the dynamics of freight transport decarbonization: A review and research agenda

The existence of time-bound targets for decarbonization of freight transport raises the need for knowledge of the dynamic behavior of the system. However, little is known about the factors that determine these dynamics, conceptually and empirically. We argue that research is needed to allow substantiated claims about the feasibility of decarbonization policies. We propose a transition theory-inspired framing of the problem, which considers the dynamics of new technologies as alternatives to the established markets, institutions and regulations. We review the relevant freight modeling research literature and develop recommendations for research. While the literature does contain a small set of studies that address the dynamic behavior of the freight system, the relevant phenomena are only partially considered and empirical evidence is scant. We recommend the use of a multi-level dynamic perspective, which includes a long-term view beyond the time horizons considered today. Most importantly, new empirical modeling work is needed to develop valid dynamic models of the relevant decisions taken by all freight transport system stakeholders.