Development of hybrid framework for risk assessment and mitigation in power sector EPC projects: evidence from Independent power Producers in Pakistan

Although Engineering–Procurement–Construction (EPC)-based Independent Power Producer (IPP) projects are critical to Pakistan’s power generation, they face persistent vulnerabilities due to interdependent contractual, financial, technical, and regulatory risks. This study develops a validated hybrid framework to assess and mitigate these multidimensional risks, integrating quantitative analysis (RII, EFA), qualitative insights (NVivo), and predictive modelling (ANN) using data from 122 EPC-IPP professionals. Results indicate that Contractual and Governance (F1) and Financial and Economic (F2) risks are the most severe, driven by contractual ambiguities, inequitable risk allocation, payment delays, circular debt pressures, and foreign exchange volatility. EFA confirmed a six-factor structure explaining 69.21% of total variance, while NVivo revealed root causes, project-level impacts, and practitioner-recommended mitigation strategies. ANN captured nonlinear interactions among risk dimensions and demonstrated high predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.82), highlighting the dominant influence of contractual and financial risks on the Risk Criticality Index (RCI). The study provides actionable recommendations for strengthening contract governance, financial planning, and regulatory oversight, and offers a transferable framework for enhancing risk management in EPC-IPP projects in emerging economies. Future research could extend this hybrid approach to other infrastructure sectors and developing-country contexts.