Model for analysing supply chain disruptions and cost volatility in construction materials markets

The disruption of global supply chains heightens cost volatility in construction materials, especially in import-dependent economies. In Ghana, systemic disruption due to persistent port congestion, exchange rate volatility and import delays increases financial risks in construction projects. Yet, empirical research has been limited in modelling the pathways of systemic disruption associated with material cost volatility. This study examines the direct and mediating relationships between Supply Chain Disruption Intensity (SCD), Organisational Responsiveness (ORN), Procurement Flexibility (PFL) and Material Cost Volatility (MCV). Utilizing a sequential explanatory mixed-method design, quantitative data were gathered through a cross-sectional survey of construction professionals in Accra, Kumasi and Takoradi and analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). Qualitative interviews provided contextual validation. The findings show that SCD has significant direct effect on MCV (β = 0.860), explaining 91.5% of variation in cost volatility. ORN (total effect = 0.605) and PFL (total effect = 0.277) significantly mediate this relationship, primarily through indirect pathways. The results confirm that external disruptions are the dominant causes of material cost volatility, but internal adaptive capacity cushions their economic effects. The research further develops systems-based modelling of construction supply chains and offers strategic insights for improving cost resilience in developing economies.