Beyond incrementalism: advancing systemic transformational adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa evidence from the Lower Niger River Basin, Nigeria

This study examines the limitations of incremental climate adaptation and the emergence of transformational adaptation (TA) in Nigeria’s Lower Niger River Basin, a region increasingly exposed to flooding, erosion, and erratic rainfall. Situated within Nigeria’s national adaptation architecture, particularly the National Adaptation Plan Framework (NAPF), the research treats policy frameworks as the institutional context shaping local adaptation rather than as a measure of implementation success. Drawing on systems thinking, socio-ecological resilience, a spatial – political perspective, the study investigates how vulnerabilities across governance, livelihoods, infrastructure, knowledge systems, and social inclusion constrain conventional adaptation responses. Using qualitative methods, including focus group discussions and in-depth interviews across three climate-affected communities (Lokoja, Idah, and Onitsha North), the findings reveal widespread dissatisfaction with short-term, externally driven interventions, alongside evidence of locally embedded adaptation practices. Community-led initiatives such as aquaculture, rooftop gardening, and cooperative enterprises demonstrate emerging forms of transformation that align with, but also extend beyond, the ambitions articulated in national policy frameworks. These practices reflect key dimensions of TA, including livelihood reconfiguration, social learning, and shifts in local governance arrangements. The study proposes a six-pillar framework for operationalising transformational adaptation and contributes empirical evidence to debates on adaptation justice and systemic resilience in climate-vulnerable regions of Sub-Saharan Africa.