Life-cycle multi-criteria decision making of bridge selections considering uncertainty under earthquakes and deterioration

This study proposes a life-cycle multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework for bridge selection under uncertainty, considering the combined effects of earthquakes and deterioration. The framework evaluates multiple criteria, including life-cycle sustainability, resilience, construction cost, carbon dioxide emissions, and application difficulty. Various sources such as structural deterioration and seismic hazards introduce uncertainties that influence bridges’ long-term sustainability and resilience. To address these challenges, this study integrates the TOPSIS–SMAA algorithm, which combines the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for ranking alternatives and Stochastic Multi-Criteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) for handling uncertainty in criteria and decision preferences. The developed approach is applied to the decision making of an SMA–steel reinforced bridge. The results indicate that while the SMA–steel reinforced bridge exhibits superior life-cycle sustainability and resilience due to its self-centering capability and corrosion resistance, it also presents challenges such as higher construction costs, increased construction carbon emissions, and greater implementation complexity. The TOPSIS–SMAA method effectively addresses uncertainties in multiple criteria and decision-maker preferences. The holistic acceptability index reveals that the novel bridge is a more favourable choice in a life-cycle context. The proposed framework provides a robust decision-support tool for sustainable and resilient bridge infrastructure planning.