Political Sentiment and Perceptions of Governance Quality Among Adult Afghan Men Living in the Era of the New Taliban: A Mixed-Method Survey Analysis

This mixed-method study maps the current political landscape of Afghanistan by examining data from 90 Afghan male respondents of a 2023 semi-structured survey. A thematic and sentiment analysis of their qualitative statements is performed including codification of key themes to assess a) prevalent political sentiments of the Taliban and b) perceptions of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA)’s governance quality among Afghan men (ages 18-50) residing in country. Results indicate that most Afghan men hold politically moderate sentiments toward the IEA, noting modest governance improvements mainly in domestic security. Comparatively, 20.5% of Afghan men hold strong anti-Taliban sentiment, while 12.05% hold strong pro-Taliban sentiment. Bootstrap modeling indicates that higher pro-Taliban sentiment significantly increases perceptions of the IEA’s overall governance quality, including its intention to govern for all fairly and control corruption (Adj. R2 = 0.88, Wald χ2 = 1650.44, p = 0.00). Each additional point higher that an Afghan man scores the IEA’s overall governance is predictably associated with a 0.26-point (6%) increase in their political sentiment toward the Taliban (Adj. R2 = 0.86, Wald χ2 = 867.57, p = 0.00). Prioritizing good governance including political accountability is crucial if the IEA is to maintain the peace.