Chasing opportunity: spillovers and drivers of US state population growth
Abstract
We examine the drivers and spatial diffusion of US state population growth using a dynamic spatial panel model over the period 1965–2017. Methodologically, the spatial network is recovered from the data rather than imposed a priori, and estimation framework permits heterogeneous slopes and interactive fixed effects. Population growth displays heterogeneous conditional convergence: around three-quarters of states converge, while a small high-growth group diverges mildly. Core drivers such as amenities, labour income and migration frictions are robust across network specifications, whereas productivity effects arise only under data-inferred networks. Spatial spillovers are economically meaningful, accounting for roughly one-third of total effects and extending beyond contiguous neighbours.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Economic Growth and Productivity
Regional resilience and development
Economic and Technological Innovation
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Spatial Economic Analysis
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 61–79
- Publication date
- 2 January 2026
- Language
- EN