Between security and democracy: understanding the rise of mano dura policies in traditionally safe Latin American States

This article explores growing support for mano dura (iron-fist) policies in four historically safe Latin American democracies: Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Uruguay. Through 32 focus groups with 259 participants, we find that mano dura narratives are popular, but cross-national variations are sharp. Ecuador shows the strongest support for extreme, often extralegal measures, whereas participants in Uruguay favour an institutional ‘law and order’ approach. Chile and Costa Rica occupy a middle ground, with contested trust in mano dura. We argue that two factors condition the intensity and form of support: (1) perceptions of institutional fragility and (2) the availability of social scapegoats – dynamics embedded within deeper historical legacies. These comparative findings reveal a reality with implications beyond Latin America: insecurity can fuel mano dura’s appeal even in stable democracies, but robust institutions can curb its most extreme manifestations.