Unpacking the determinants of carbon retrofit adoption in developing economies: a PLS-SEM study

The urgent need to reduce emissions from existing buildings has positioned carbon retrofitting as a critical strategy for advancing sustainable construction in Nigeria. However, empirical understanding of the factors influencing adoption among built-environment professionals remains limited. Measurement items were adapted from validated carbon retrofit and sustainability adoption instruments and contextualized to Nigeria through expert practitioner review. Using a structured questionnaire within a positivist research paradigm, data were collected from built-environment professionals and analyzed using PLS-SEM to examine five adoption drivers: regulatory pressure (RP), economic and financial feasibility (EFF), organizational capability (OC), technological readiness (TR), and stakeholder collaboration (SC). Results indicate that RP (β = 0.429), EFF (β = 0.392), and OC (β = 0.374) are the strongest predictors, confirming an institutional-financial-organizational adoption logic in which regulatory mandates, retrofit cost considerations and firm execution capacity shape decisions toward carbon-sensitive upgrades. Technological readiness shows a positive influence, while stakeholder collaboration is only marginally significant, reflecting coordination challenges within fragmented retrofit ecosystems. Moderate practitioner knowledge reveals gaps in carbon assessment literacy, lifecycle retrofit cost modeling, low-carbon material specification, and integration of emerging retrofit technologies, which may constrain adoption. The findings highlight the importance of targeted training, certification-linked upskilling and investment in organizational capacity. The validated framework provides actionable guidance for policy incentive design, retrofit financing prioritization, and capability development, while advancing carbon retrofit adoption theory in LMIC construction contexts and demonstrating the value of PLS-SEM for modeling complex sustainability adoption dynamics.HighlightsEmpirically identifies five core drivers shaping carbon retrofit adoption in Nigeria, including regulatory pressure, economic feasibility, organizational capability, technological readiness and stakeholder collaboration.Applies PLS-SEM to model complex interrelationships among adoption drivers, providing robust predictive insights for retrofit decision-making.Reveals that regulatory pressure, economic feasibility and organizational capability are the strongest predictors of carbon retrofit adoption among built-environment professionals.Presents a validated, practitioner-informed framework to guide policymakers, construction firms and project managers in implementing carbon-reduction strategies.Highlights ongoing capacity gaps among practitioners and emphasizes the need for targeted training, mentorship and knowledge-sharing initiatives to enhance adoption.