Boosting Africa’s agri-food exports to China——two policy levers: tariff reduction and SPS improvements

We examine how Africa can expand its agri-food exports to China by assessing two policy levers: tariff reduction and improvements in sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) procedures. Despite rapid growth in China’s import demand, Africa’s market share remains limited. Using a combination of historical trade forecasts, a GTAP simulation of a zero-tariff scenario, and product-level estimates of gains from streamlined SPS approvals, we find a clear pattern. Tariff liberalization yields only modest trade growth, while SPS improvements—particularly those reducing fixed entry costs and accelerating approvals—generate substantially larger gains and enable new African products to enter the Chinese market. A continent-wide survey of African authorities corroborates these results, citing long approval timelines, communication difficulties, and capacity constraints. Overall, zero tariffs can help, but sustained export growth depends primarily on clearer, more predictable, and more efficient SPS procedures.