The promise and paradox of transit-oriented development: a New Urbanist appraisal in Utah

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) is widely promoted as a strategy for sustainable urban growth, often grounded in New Urbanism. This study critically appraises Fireclay Village in Salt Lake County, Utah, assessing its alignment with New Urbanist design principles and its effectiveness in supporting transit use. Using field observations and secondary data, the study applies the D-variables, New Urbanist neighborhood principles, the 5-minute neighborhood concept, and a land use–transportation interaction model to evaluate transit use and urban design. Field observations and secondary data sources informed the spatial analysis. Findings indicate that Fireclay Village exhibits compactness, mixed-use diversity, and close proximity to the UTA station, consistent with New Urbanism. However, actual transit boardings reach only about 25% of modeled expectations, revealing persistent auto-dependency despite strong design attributes. The absence of neighborhood-level demand management measures and the study’s focus on physical form at the expense of non-physical factors such as demographic, sociocultural, and policy variables indicate the limits of design-led TOD strategies in shaping transit use and functionality. This raises critical questions about whether design alone is sufficient to shift mobility patterns and influence transit ridership. The study contributes to ongoing debates on the real-world impacts of New Urbanist-inspired TODs.