Role of avoided emissions scheme and estimation of contributions of electric vehicles and heat pumps to reduction in global emissions

The Scope 3 emissions of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol are widely recognized globally, and it is important to understand the emissions from an entire value chain and to elucidate the opportunities for their reduction. The Scope 3 emissions increase in association with larger deployments of products, even those that have high energy efficiency. Therefore, measuring and estimating the “avoided emissions” that correspond to the difference between global emissions from that product usage and the baseline emissions is crucial in emission reduction activities. This study used an energy systems model to estimate the potential avoided emissions in two key end-use technologies: batteries and the hot water supply and space heating technologies of heat-pumps. The global avoided emissions by 2050 are expected to be approximately 12 and 4 GtCO2, respectively, for meeting the target of restricting air temperature rise to below 1.5 °C. The ex-post assessments on measuring the avoided emissions have issues regarding the definition of the baseline emissions, but the ex-ante assessments, estimated using the energy systems model, can convey clear definition of the baseline emissions and support emission reduction activities.