What accelerates the arrival of the peak carbon dioxide emissions turning point in tourism? Empirical evidence from China

Globalization has elevated tourism's role in the global economy, impacting growth, jobs, and culture while also making it a significant source of GHG emissions. Although the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis has been widely applied in tourism-carbon studies, little is known about which factors accelerate the shift in the carbon peak inflection point in the tourism sector – a critical knowledge gap for policy design. This study addresses that gap by identifying and empirically testing the factors that accelerate the tourism carbon peak in China. Using data from 2011 to 2023, we confirm an “inverted U” curve between tourism GHG emissions and income, which is consistent with the EKC hypothesis. While some sectors like accommodation and catering show clear EKC patterns, others like entertainment lack an inflection point, with emissions rising alongside economic growth. Factors including energy and urban regulations significantly influence the EKC inflection point, promoting both “peak decline” and “peak shift”. Policy recommendations are to promote clean fuel vehicles in tourism transport, enhance tourists' environmental awareness, and encourage energy conservation and emission reduction in tourism enterprises. These findings not only help China meet its carbon goals but also provide actionable insights for guiding global tourism toward sustainability.