Major power competition in the Indo-Pacific and the blue economy: a catalyst for cooperation in small island states?

The Indo-Pacific has become the focal point of twenty-first-century geopolitics, defined by intensifying the United States–China rivalry and the active roles of India, Japan, and Australia. This article examines how major power competition influences the development of the Blue Economy in the Small Island States (SIS) of the region. It argues that strategic rivalry has acted as a catalyst for enhanced blue economy cooperation, as great powers seek to expand influence through investment, technical aid, and institutional engagement. Using qualitative and comparative case studies of the Maldives and Fiji, the analysis shows that competition has stimulated growth in key sectors such as maritime infrastructure, sustainable fisheries, marine security, and renewable energy. This has created a ‘suitor’s market,' enabling SIS to diversify partnerships and exercise greater agency. However, these gains carry risks of debt dependency, sovereignty erosion, and ecological strain. The article concludes that while geopolitical competition has largely benefited blue economy initiatives, the sustainability of these advantages depends on the capacity of SIS to strengthen governance, preserve strategic autonomy, and manage the external pressures that accompany great power engagement in the Indo-Pacific.