Exploring the interconnections between climate, farming systems, and income: evidence from five African countries

This study examines how climate affects farm-type selection and agricultural income per capita, drawing on 14,800 observations from five African countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda. By employing three empirical models, we aim to find the mechanisms driving these interactions. First, an ordered probit model explores the factors influencing farm-type selection, reflecting ecological and socio-economic trade-offs. Second, a Ricardian model quantifies the effect of climate variables on farm income, linking climatic factors to productivity and land use. Finally, an augmented inverse-probability weighting model analyzes the relationship between farm types and income, providing insights into how farming practices shape and are shaped by ecological processes. The findings highlight that factors such as the household head’s sex, urbanization level, country of residence, and access to information significantly shape farm-type selection and income. Moreover, the study reveals that African farmers respond to long-term temperature and rainfall changes by transitioning from mixed crop-livestock systems, recognized for their profitability and ecological diversity, to more specialized crop or livestock production. Therefore, research and development policies must prioritize strengthening the resilience of mixed crop–livestock systems through investments in climate-smart technologies, extension and information services, and targeted support for vulnerable groups.