Simulation of energy performance of a residential building through the year 2100 and the workflow to integrate evolving climate projections with historical hourly meteorological data

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Authors: Kwasi Hyiah Agyei-Agyemang, Victor Andrew Ocampo, Eric Bibeau
Cited by: 1
References: 45

Abstract

Building energy simulations have traditionally relied on historical weather files that do not account for climate change. This study presents an open-source, automated Python workflow to generate future hourly weather files compatible with EnergyPlus for building energy and renewable energy simulations across North America through 2100. The methodology combines quality-controlled historical data (CWEEDS, GHCNh, NSRDB) with bias-corrected NA-CORDEX projections using Quantile Delta Mapping and analogue-based temporal disaggregation. A machine learning step is introduced to decompose solar radiation for EPW compliance. The pipeline produces ready-to-use CSV and EPW files, enabling direct assessment of hourly building performance and renewable energy potential under future climate scenarios. Validation indicates plausible warming (e.g. +3°C–6°C in Winnipeg under RCP8.5) and consistent photovoltaic simulation results. The open-source Python code is made publicly available.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Building Energy and Comfort Optimization Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics Integrated Energy Systems Optimization

Publication details

Journal / source
Journal of Building Performance Simulation
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Pages
1–23
Publication date
18 June 2026
Language
EN