Intra-provincial long-distance leisure travel-activity heterogeneity across age groups: a multi-group latent class analysis

Long-distance leisure travel plays a critical role in regional transportation and urban development, yet its contextual variation and behavioral heterogeneity remain insufficiently understood. This study employs multi-group latent class regression (mgCLR) models to examine intra-provincial leisure travel-activity patterns in Ontario, Canada, capturing multilevel and multidimensional heterogeneity with statistical interpretability. Using data from the 2019 Canadian National Travel Survey, this analysis identifies four latent travel classes and six latent activity classes, forming twenty-four distinct travel-activity segments. Results reveal both commonalities and sharp contrasts among age groups alongside compounding age-income effects that shape trip making, activity participation and spending. These findings provide fresh and actionable insights for transportation agencies and tourism businesses to better align service provision and targeted offerings with heterogeneous leisure demand. By explicitly accounting for group distinctions and compounding effects, the study supports more equitable, efficient, and demand-responsive travel and tourism planning.