Temporal patterns of paratransit usages: a case study of pre-, during-, and post-COVID-19 usage patterns using time-series clustering

Paratransit services are vital for older adults and individuals with disabilities, whose mobility challenges worsened during COVID-19. However, limited research explores shifts in paratransit usage across pandemic phases and their future implications. This study addresses this gap by analyzing paratransit usage patterns using data from a Texas-based paratransit service, spanning January 2019 to December 2022. We employ time-series clustering to categorize users based on trip behaviors, revealing four distinct patterns. High-trip users reduced their frequency from 6 trips per week pre-pandemic to 4.7 during the pandemic but returned to pre-pandemic levels afterward. Moderate-trip users also saw a decline but only partially recovered post-pandemic. These varying recovery rates highlight the pandemic’s differing impacts, with high-frequency travelers rebounding most strongly. Notably, around 55% of users left the system post-pandemic, while 14% consistently used it. These insights emphasize the need for targeted service provision and strategic resource allocation by paratransit agencies.