Understanding global maternal mortality rate across the regions: Evidence from stochastic conditional and club convergence

This study examines the convergence hypothesis of the maternal mortality rate (MMR), which posits that countries with higher MMR are converging with the lower MMR countries, using UNICEF data from 2000 to 2017. Specifically, this study examines two types of convergence. First, it examines stochastic conditional convergence in MMR by testing the stationarity property of regional MMR gaps relative to global MMR. Specifically, the MMR gap is defined as the difference between a region’s maternal mortality rate and the world MMR. If this gap is stationary, shocks to maternal mortality are temporary, and the region exhibits stochastic conditional convergence towards the global MMR. Conversely, a non-stationary MMR gap indicates persistent divergence. Stationarity test results indicate no convergence, except in Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern and Southern Africa. Secondly, this study aims to investigate the club convergence, which refers to the phenomenon where countries do not all converge to a single steady state but rather form distinct ‘convergence clubs’. The Phillips & Sul [Transition Modelling and Econometric Convergence Tests. Econometrica. 2007;75:1771–1855. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00811.x] approach is applied to examine club convergence. The results show no evidence of overall convergence for the full sample; rather, two convergence clubs are noted. Our findings suggest that the African region needs stronger health systems to maintain low MMR levels.