Tourism Resilience in Emerging Countries: An Econometric Analysis of Risk Factors

The COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by political instability and natural disasters, caused a sharp global decline in travel and tourism employment, delaying recovery to pre-pandemic expenditure levels. This study explores how emerging countries such as South Africa, which showed to be particularly hit by such travel decline could enhance tourism resilience amid crises. Drawing on a robust theoretical framework of four interrelated perspectives and analyzing data from 1995 to 2023, it examines how governance, country risk, sustainability, economic growth, and currency fluctuations affect tourism stability. Findings reveal that stronggovernance, sustainable development, and economic growth foster higher tourism spending, while currency depreciation can boost affordability for international visitors. Natural resources and competitive pricing can further enhance tourism appeal. To strengthen resilience, the study recommends diversifying tourism offerings, advancing sustainable practices, improving risk management, and fostering public-private partnerships, to prepare destinations for future crises.