Market forces or policy guidance: the dominant role of market factors in the sustainable growth of forestry investment

China has been advancing market-oriented reforms in the forestry sector and has launched a new round of collective forest tenure system reform. (1) Background: Since 1999, there has been limited research comparing the development dynamics between the Southern Collective Forest Region (SCFR) and the Northern Plain Forest Region (NPFR). Such comparative insights are crucial for incentivizing forest farmers’ engagement in forestry investment, optimizing forestry reform policies and institutional frameworks, and further fostering high-quality development in China’s forestry sector. (2) Methods: To assess whether policy or market factors are the main drivers of forestry investment, this study conducts a comparative analysis of the SCFR and NPFR. Specifically, the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method is applied to provincial-level macro data. Additionally, the STIRPAT model is used to project forestry investment trends under varying degrees of market intensity. (3) Results: The DID estimates indicate that market forces play a more substantial role than policy in shaping total forestry investment. The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a pronounced positive effect on forestry investment. STIRPAT-based projections further suggest that higher market intensity is associated with greater levels of forestry investment. (4) Conclusions: The market environment constitutes the principal driver of the increase in forestry investment. Improving the market system can effectively promote the expansion of forestry investment, thereby contributing to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals.