Direct mayoral elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina: an ethnic zero-sum game

This article examines how the demographic composition of municipalities in Bosnia and Herzegovina shapes the strategic behaviour of co-ethnic political parties in direct mayoral elections. It argues that strategies differ between ethnically divided and homogeneous municipalities. Combining quantitative data from four electoral cycles with qualitative field research in eleven divided localities, the study finds that in demographically mixed areas, Bosniak, Croat, and Serb parties often unite behind a single candidate, whereas in homogeneous areas intra-ethnic competition prevails. The findings underscore the zero-sum nature of ethnic politics in a post-conflict society and the central role of demographics in structuring local competition.